Posts Tagged
‘economy’

As we head into the decade of the twenties, welcome to the casino! You can double your money on red or black, or you can lose it all. Never in the lifetimes of people living today have speculators faced the alternative of investments so ripe with positive potential while simultaneously saturated with the risk of [...]

Over the past year, the major factors affecting stock market movement—expectations of Federal Reserve policy and administration comments about the China trade dispute—have remained largely the same. What has changed is that market reactions are unfolding in an increasingly compressed time frame. At the long end of a three-year process of Fed interest rate “normalization”, [...]

“Is the market going up just because of the Fed?” – asked of an investment strategist by a CNBC announcer. “No, the economy is incredibly strong.” This interchange took place immediately following the strategist’s prediction that the Fed will lower short-term interest rates in July by 25 basis points, possibly by 50. Even if illogical, [...]

For the past several years, we have been profiling the dilemma facing investors as a “bet” between: 1) Reliance on traditional investment fundamentals reverting to their long-term means, which has always ultimately proven successful; or 2) Reliance on central bankers continuing to prevent securities prices from a reversion to historic fundamental averages, the approach that [...]

2018 proved to be a difficult year for investors throughout the world. Nothing performed well, and there were very few places to hide. In the United States, the majority of stock indexes reached all-time highs in January, only to suffer sharp declines over the next two months. A negative first quarter accompanied by worrisome foreign [...]

Notwithstanding brief periods of weakness, both stock and bond markets have experienced remarkable success for more than seven years running. Through that period, those who have continued to highlight various dangers as reason for caution have been perceived as boys who cried "wolf." Copious quantities of newly printed money have flooded the equity and fixed [...]

Almost all investors have at least a general familiarity with the long-term performance record of stocks, bonds and cash equivalents. Over the 90-year span from the end of 1925 to year-end 2015, common stocks provided an average annual total return of 10.0%; Intermediate U.S. Government Bonds 5.3%; and risk-free U.S. Treasury Bills 3.5%. All this [...]

Unless you are extremely well off ($10 million or more in liquid assets for individuals or families), fight the urge to retire in this era of great financial uncertainty. The United States and much of the world has embarked on an unprecedented venture to absolve the financial sins of the current and immediate past generations [...]