Author Archive

2020 4th Quarter Market Commentary

This graph highlights the stark dichotomy between what investors view as “good” and “bad” on the current investment landscape. The tan line traces the cumulative growth of the S&P 500 over the past half century. Most noteworthy is the explosive growth in the nearly dozen years since the end of the Financial Crisis. By contrast, [...]

Jan 22, 2021

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: corporate profits, COVID-19 economy, covid-19 recession, economic stimulus, economic uncertainty, economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, investment strategy, negative market factors, positive market factors, S&P 500, stock prices, stock valuations

Categories: Investment Thinking, Quarterly Commentary

2020 3rd Quarter Market Commentary

Investors continue to face a serious quandary: How to proceed with historically overvalued equity markets, worldwide economic malaise, minimal interest rates and a Fed seemingly committed to eliminating any danger of significant loss to either stocks or bonds? Throw in a highly acrimonious political scene with questions on both left and right about whether the [...]

Can the Fed Prevent Overvalued Market Leaders from Falling?

For several years, investors have wrestled with a profound dilemma. With Federal Reserve and other substantial government stimulus, stock prices have risen to and remained at valuation levels that have, throughout history, ultimately been severely punished. As the years rolled on and the Fed consistently provided one sort of stimulus or another whenever stocks appeared [...]

Sep 01, 2020

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: Central Bank, economy, equities, equity markets, Federal Reserve, GDP, market valuation, Nasdaq, S&P 500, stock market, stocks, volatility, Wall Street

Categories: Investment Thinking, Markets & Economy, Stock & Bond Markets

Investors Ignore Buffett’s Favorite Valuation Measure

The US economy is struggling through its worst decline since the 1930s. Corporate earnings have plummeted, and numerous CEOs are refusing to offer forecasts for upcoming quarters. Nonetheless, the major stock indexes have rallied to or above all-time highs. Investors appear willing to disregard weak fundamentals so long as the Federal Reserve continues to produce [...]

Aug 18, 2020

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: COVID-19 economy, economic downturn, economy, fed policy, Federal Reserve, investments, markets, overvaluation, stock market, stock prices

Categories: Investment Thinking, Markets & Economy, Stock & Bond Markets

2020 2nd Quarter Market Commentary

Late in the second quarter, I wrote To Be Equity-Lite or Equity-Heavy?, which spelled out the predominant arguments for and against significant equity ownership in the current environment. I encourage you to read or reread that article to evaluate your own reasons for remaining either equity-lite or equity-heavy. Departing from our typical Quarterly Commentary format, [...]

To Be Equity-Lite or Equity-Heavy?

During the first quarter, we experienced the fastest ever 35% decline from an all-time high in US equity market prices. The subsequent remarkable recovery rally regained most of the lost ground in barely a month and a half. Commentators are currently marveling about the disconnect between aggressively rising stock prices and the weakest economic data [...]

Jun 16, 2020

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: bear market, bull markets, COVID-19 stock market, equities, equity investing, equity prices, Federal Reserve, investing strategies, S&P 500, stock market, stock market rally, stock market risk, stock valuations, stocks, Wall Street

Categories: Investment Thinking, Markets & Economy, Stock & Bond Markets

Is April’s Rally A Forecast?

As the month of April closed last week, Wall Street celebrated the S&P 500’s powerful 12.7% advance, the strongest monthly gain in 33 years. Whether that success points to continued gains in the short run, however, is open to question. Looking back, two even more profitable months saw slightly varied outcomes. The most profitable month, [...]

May 05, 2020

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: bear market, bull markets, coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, COVID-19 stock market, S&P 500, stock market, stock market rally, Wall Street

Categories: Investment Thinking, Markets & Economy, Stock & Bond Markets

Relevant News

Two articles from The Wall Street Journal weekend edition struck me as particularly helpful to readers seeking insight into prospects for the pandemic, the economy and the investment markets. Relative to the coronavirus pandemic and its potential effect on the economy, let the authors Louise Radnofsky and Ben Cohen speak for themselves: There has always [...]

Apr 20, 2020

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: coronavirus pandemic, economic insights, economy, epidemics, pandemic, pandemic consequences, recession, uncertainty

Categories: Economics, Investment Thinking, Markets & Economy

2020 1st Quarter Market Commentary

In just under two months, stock prices worldwide have plummeted from historic highs to bear market lows and have rocketed part way back up again. The coronavirus has infected nearly 2 million people, killing over 100,000, and shut down vast swaths of the world economy. In less than one month, our way of life has [...]

Apr 14, 2020

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: bear market, commentary, coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, debt, Dow Jones, economy, equities, equity markets, Federal Reserve, financial crisis, interest rates, investments, market commentary, market valuation, market volatility, NYSE, recession, S&P 500, stock market, stock prices, stock valuations, stocks, volatility, Wall Street, world economy

Categories: Markets & Economy, Quarterly Commentary, Stock & Bond Markets

2020 1st Quarter Cash Management Commentary

In our January Commentary, we noted that the Fed had dropped short-term interest rates in late-2019 in three distinct quarter point increments to the year-end level of 1.50-1.75%. As the coronavirus spread around the world in early-2020, the central bank cut interest rates on March 3 by half a percentage point, its biggest single cut [...]

Apr 14, 2020

by: Tom Feeney

Tags: cash investments, cash management, cash yields, CDs, Central Bank, commentary, debt, federal funds rate, inflation, interest rates, investments, market commentary

Categories: Investment Thinking, Markets & Economy, Quarterly Commentary

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