Archive for the
‘Quarterly Commentary’ Category

Almost No Place To Hide There was little opportunity for profit in traditional asset categories in this year’s first quarter.  The S&P 500, against which most equity returns are measured, rallied nicely in late-March but finished down for the quarter by 4.6%.  The Nasdaq Composite, which includes most of the mega-tech companies that have led [...]

Because I’m writing for a newly expanded readership, many of whom have never before seen our commentaries, I’m going to take a somewhat different approach in this issue. It is always advantageous to know the biases of a writer and, ideally, to know what he/she has identified previously as the factors likely to influence markets [...]

This year’s third quarter was unproductive for investment assets. Domestic stock markets were mixed, with the S&P 500 fractionally positive but the Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange Index all negative. Risk-free Treasury Bills continue to pay virtually nothing. Bloomberg’s U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was also essentially flat and remains negative [...]

If we’re unconcerned about the price we pay, there are several reasons to buy stocks today. Thanks to copious stimulus from the Federal Reserve, common stock indexes have continued their march upward, and most securities analysts are forecasting further gains. Notwithstanding the Fed’s generosity, however, U.S. Treasury notes and bonds and investment-grade corporates  lost money [...]

The securities markets experienced drama in positive and negative directions in the year’s first quarter, as the Federal Reserve and most other world central banks continued to flood their respective economies with newly printed money. Only risk-free securities avoided the excitement. In fact, Three-Month Treasury Bills barely registered a pulse with a 0.01% return. By [...]

-The Good, The Bad and The Ugly- This graph highlights the stark dichotomy between what investors view as “good” and “bad” on the current investment landscape. The tan line traces the cumulative growth of the S&P 500 over the past half century. Most noteworthy is the explosive growth in the nearly dozen years since the [...]

Investors continue to face a serious quandary: How to proceed with historically overvalued equity markets, worldwide economic malaise, minimal interest rates and a Fed seemingly committed to eliminating any danger of significant loss to either stocks or bonds? Throw in a highly acrimonious political scene with questions on both left and right about whether the [...]

Late in the second quarter, I wrote To Be Equity-Lite or Equity-Heavy?, which spelled out the predominant arguments for and against significant equity ownership in the current environment. I encourage you to read or reread that article to evaluate your own reasons for remaining either equity-lite or equity-heavy. Departing from our typical Quarterly Commentary format, [...]

In just under two months, stock prices worldwide have plummeted from historic highs to bear market lows and have rocketed part way back up again. The coronavirus has infected nearly 2 million people, killing over 100,000, and shut down vast swaths of the world economy. In less than one month, our way of life has [...]

In our January Commentary, we noted that the Fed had dropped short-term interest rates in late-2019 in three distinct quarter point increments to the year-end level of 1.50-1.75%. As the coronavirus spread around the world in early-2020, the central bank cut interest rates on March 3 by half a percentage point, its biggest single cut [...]